BRUSSELS — For Europe’s populists, the electoral defeat of President Trump, who has been a symbol of success and a strong supporter, was bad enough. But his refusal to accept defeat and the violence that followed appears to have damaged the prospects of similarly minded leaders across the continent.
“What happened in the Capitol following the defeat of Donald Trump is a bad omen for the populists,” said Dominique Moïsi, a senior analyst at the Paris-based Institut Montaigne. “It says two things: If you elect them, they don’t leave power easily, and if you elect them, look at what they can do in calling for popular anger.”
The long day of rioting, violence and death as Mr. Trump’s supporters stormed the Capitol has presented a clear warning to countries such as France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Poland about underestimating the force of populist anger and the prevalence of conspiracy theories aimed at democratic governments.
Heather Grabbe, director of the Open Society European Policy Institute in Brussels, said the unrest showed how the populist playbook was founded on “us versus them and leads to violence.”
“But it’s very important to show where populism leads and how it plays with fire,” she added. “When you’ve aroused your supporters with political arguments about us versus them, they are not opponents but enemies who must be fought with all means, and it both leads to violence and makes conceding power impossible.”
Just how threatening Europe’s populists found the events in the United States could be seen in their reaction: One by one, they distanced themselves from the rioting or fell silent.
In France, Marine Le Pen, head of the far-right National Rally, is expected to mount another significant challenge to President Emmanuel Macron in the 2022 election. She was firm in supporting Mr. Trump, praised his election and Brexit as precursors to populist success in France and echoed his insistence that the American election was rigged and fraudulent. But after the violence, which she said left her “very shocked,” Ms. Le Pen pulled back, condemning “any violent act that aims to disrupt the democratic process.”
Like Ms. Le Pen, Matteo Salvini, populist leader of the Italian anti-immigrant League party, said, “Violence is never the solution.” In the Netherlands, Geert Wilders, a prominent right-wing party leader, criticized the attack on the American legislature. With elections in his country in March, Mr. Wilders wrote on Twitter, “The outcome of democratic elections should always be respected, whether you win or lose.”
Thierry Baudet, another high-profile Dutch populist, has aligned himself with Mr. Trump and the anti-vaccination movement, and in the past has called the independence of the judiciary and a “phony parliament” into question.
But already in difficulty over reported anti-Semitic remarks and rifts in his party, Forum for Democracy, Mr. Baudet, too, has had little to say so far.
Still, Forum for Democracy and Mr. Wilders’s Party for Freedom together are likely to get about 20 percent of the vote in the Dutch elections, said Rem Korteweg, an analyst at the Clingendael Institute in the Netherlands.
Even if populist leaders seem shaken by the events in Washington and nervous about further violence at the inauguration on Jan. 20, there remains considerable anxiety among mainstream politicians about anti-elitist, anti-government political movements in Europe, especially amid the confusion and anxiety produced by the coronavirus pandemic.
Capitol Riot Fallout
Janis A. Emmanouilidis, director of studies at the European Policy Center in Brussels, said that there was no uniform European populism. The various movements have different characteristics in different countries, and outside events are only one factor in their varying popularity, he noted.
“Now the most pressing issue is Covid-19, but it’s not at all clear how politics will play out post-pandemic,” he said. “But,” he added, “the fear of the worst helps to avoid the worst.”
The “amazing polarization of society” and the violence in Washington “creates a lot of deterrence in other societies,” Mr. Emmanouilidis said. “We see where it leads, we want to avoid it, but we are aware that we too could get to that point, that things could escalate.”
If economies tank and populists gain power in France or Italy, he said, “God forbid when Europe faces the next crisis.” That concern — with an eye on the 2022 election — seems to have been partly why Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany has been so solicitous of France and of the demands of Mr. Macron.
In Poland, the government has been very pro-Trump and public television did not acknowledge his electoral defeat until Mr. Trump did himself, said Radoslaw Sikorski, a former foreign and defense minister who is now chairman of the European Parliament’s delegation for relations with the United States.
“With Trump’s defeat, there was an audible sound of disappointment from the populist right in Central Europe,” Mr. Sikorski said. “For them, the world will be a lonelier place.”
Similarly, Prime Minister Victor Orban of Hungary, a firm supporter of Mr. Trump, declined to comment on the riot. “We should not interfere in what is happening in America, that is America’s business, we are rooting for them and we trust that they will manage to solve their own problems,” he told state radio.
Mr. Sikorski, the Polish former minister, is a political opponent of the current government in his country. Europe, he said, needed to “wake up to the dangers of far-right violence” and conspiracy theories. “There’s far more far-right violence than jihadi violence,” he said. “We can’t assume this kind of craziness will go away, because they have their own facts. We need to take the gloves off — liberal democracy must defend itself.”
Enrico Letta, a former prime minister of Italy who is now dean of the Paris School of International Affairs at Sciences Po, said that Mr. Trump “gave credibility to the disruptive attitudes and approaches of populist leaders in Europe, so having him out is a big problem for them.” Then came the riot, he said, “which I think changed the map completely.”
Now, like Ms. Le Pen, Italian populist leaders have felt “obliged to cut their ties to some forms of extremism,” Mr. Letta said. “They have lost this ability to preserve this ambiguity about their ties to extremists on the margins,” he added.
He said that Mr. Trump’s defeat and the violent responses to it were considerable blows to European populism. The coronavirus disaster alone, he added, represented “the revenge of competence and the scientific method” against the obscurantism and anti-elitism of populism, noting that the troubles surrounding Brexit have also been a blow.
“We even start to think that Brexit has been something positive for the rest of Europe, allowing a relaunch,” Mr. Letta said. “Nobody followed Britain out, and now there’s the collapse of Trump.”
But Mr. Moïsi, the Institut Montaigne analyst, struck a darker note. Having written about the emotions of geopolitics, he sees a dangerous analogy in what happened at the Capitol, noting that it could go down as a heroic event among many of Mr. Trump’s supporters.
The rioting reminded him, he said, of the failed Beer Hall Putsch by Adolf Hitler and the early Nazi Party in Munich in 1923.
That effort to overthrow the Bavarian government also had elements of farce and was widely ridiculed, but it became “the foundational myth of the Nazi regime,” Mr. Moïsi said. Hitler spent the prison term he was handed after the violence writing “Mein Kampf.”
Mr. Moïsi cited the death of Ashli Babbitt, a military veteran shot by a Capitol Police officer. “If things go badly in America,” he said, “this woman could be the first martyr.”